Deciding that you’re really ready to buy a house and finding an actual house to buy are two different things — especially in the current market. If you’ve been scanning the home listings or visiting open houses and thinking, “Why don’t I see anything that looks good?” it’s probably not your imagination. It’s not even your innate fussiness.
A shortage of housing inventory is affecting many parts of the United States. This issue, and the multiple reasons for it, were major topics at the recent conference of the National Association of Real Estate Editors (NAREE) in Denver.
Curt Beardsley with Realtor.com observed, “Total for-sale inventory is 20% down. That means we’re down to about 1.8 million single family homes for sale, from 3.1 million in 2007.”
The most massive decreases in inventory, says Beardsley, are along the West Coast, in Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose. On the other side of the country, Tampa and Atlanta have the most limited offerings of homes for sale.
Here are some of the reasons the experts offered for the shortage:
- Potential sellers feel trapped. According to Scott Ryles, CEO of Home Value Protection, Inc., “One quarter of homeowners are underwater today” (owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth, in cases where they have a mortgage) or they simply “can’t afford to move.” Even if these owners want to sell, the numbers just don’t add up for them — and won’t, until home prices rise.
- Builders aren’t building. Before the crash, builders of new homes were adding to the nation’s inventory at three times the rate they are today, according to David Crowe, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Across the U.S., there are only about 50,000 newly built homes where the carpets are in and you can move in tomorrow, says Crowe. What’s more, it’s not easy for builders to reverse course and start building again. Crowe explains, “We’ve lost a lot of capacity; contractors, materials supply . . . No one has come back strong. Plants have been mothballed.”
- Investors are turning single-family homes into rentals. As a potential buyer, you’ve got competition from investors savvy enough to realize that the rental market is stronger than ever. Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX notes, “Twenty five percent of home buyers now are investors. These are good investors, not flippers. They’re going to drive the recovery. Families who’ve been foreclosed on can’t qualify for a home. If you have kids, dogs, and so forth, you want a yard; you’re not going to move into an apartment.” Of course, if you want to buy a home, get ready to watch some of the bargains being snapped up.
This doesn’t mean that you should give up. Stan Humphries, chief economist with Zillow.com, believes that every time prices spike upward, it will “free some owners from negative equity, and you’ll see some surplus in supply for a while.” But hoping for low prices as well as lots of choices may be too much to hope for.